2 posts tagged “biden”

NBC/WSJ Presidential choice MoE +/- 3
                 9/08 (8/08) (6/08)
Barack Obama  46   (45)   (47)
John McCain   45   (42)   (41)

The survey had good news for Sen. Obama as well, showing that he improved his standing with the electorate in areas where he had been seen as weak. More voters found said they were comfortable with him as president that they did in a Journal poll three weeks ago, as did the portion who said they were confident in his ability to be commander in chief.

A growing number also said he has a background and set of values they can identify with.

And despite the McCain-Palin bounce, Democratic pollster Peter Hart -- who conducts the poll with Republican Neil Newhouse -- offered a caution for the Republicans. He noted that voters are just getting to know Gov. Palin: "The faster they rise, the steeper the descent."

This is going to be a "Why the Republicans are doing well" media week  because they have the momentum. Media (as well as a few Dems) will assume a tie goes to the Republicans because of 2004 and 2000, and lingering questions abut a Bradley effect (see When Voters Lie). Certainly, the Republicans will run the cultural race they like to run, but it's with a diminishing base.

Nonetheless, the race remains close (see yesterday's poll round-up), and that is because, at least this week, McCain-Palin is winning independents.

Sarah Palin remains controversial, and her contribution to the ticket remains tough to quantify. For all the hoopla (see the headline) in the NBC/WSJ poll, Sarah Palin has similar numbers to Biden of improving chances of voting for top of ticket (increase/decrease for Palin of 34-25, a +9; increase/decrease for Biden of 24-16, a +8). Because she is so visible, expect more and not less focus on Palin, but in aspects that reinforce whatever Obama's closing argument is to be (economics, future, etc) as well as what the Palin selection says about McCain.

More from WSJ:

Indeed, scrutiny of her record is ongoing, and she is being forced nearly daily to reconcile her self-proclaimed image as a "reformer" with allegations that she practiced more traditional-style politics in Alaska. On Tuesday, the Washington Post reported that Gov. Palin had billed taxpayers for 312 nights when she slept at home, charging a "per diem" that is intended to cover expenses while traveling on state business. McCain-Palin spokesman Michael Goldfarb said that the governor reduced other government spending. "Her travel-related activities have been appropriately documented, are completely transparent, and entirely legal," he said.

Unflattering news could also break from the investigation of firing of public safety commissioner; state lawmakers are scheduled to meet Friday to consider issuing subpoenas in the probe. She has also come under fire for claiming to have killed the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" project when her opposition came only after it had been singled out as among the most egregious of congressional pork.

Here are some more tidbits, in advance of the full polling numbers:

Enthusiasm among the McCain voters is way up: 34% now say they are excited about the ticket vs. just 12% last month . Still, Obama voters remain more enthusiastic about their man, with 55% saying they are excited, up from 46% in August.

The number of people who view Sen. McCain as simply the "lesser of two evils" was cut in half , to 22%. Just 12% of Obama voters see him that way.

The trackers today have not shown further McCain movement:

Rasmussen 48-48 (+1 Obama from yesterday) MoE +/- 2
Gallup 49-44 McCain (no change from yesterday) MoE +/- 2
Diageo/Hotline : 45-44 McCain (+1 McCain from yesterday) MoE +/- 3

Obama still has change, GOTV and EV strengths, including a very close race in FL (a state where the Palin vote might hurt). This is also possibly a high water mark for the Republicans at the end of their convention bounce. But right now, as a snapshot, this represents improvement for McCain, and all the indicators say it will be a close race to the end, regardless of how often the lead changes hands.

Original source here